Good Money After Bad

$60+ Billion for Automakers Down The Tubes

As I have been mentioning the “investments”, really loans from the world to the US to loan and “invest” in the automotive giants, is very unlikely to ever get paid back. Note that GM alone with $50 billion would require a historic increase in their stock value. This is very unlikely to occur as is the case in many of the loans and stock positions the government has taken in big businesses. Although it appears the banking sector is recovering and not reaching out for a lot of new bailouts it is still a challenge at best for the US to recover those positions either. Then there is TARP and that is made up of toxic loans and portfolios so that is also in jeopardy.

It is not like we all haven’t been talking about this for over year and common sense already led us to this point. So now we see the headlines already talking about the probability of the ROI (return on investment) of all the money put into the auto companies alone. Although these bailouts may have been necessary to save companies and entire industries our new stock broker appears to have made some bad choices. The government has been very aggressive in their ownership stakes in the businesses and I like that component because it may juice returns. However, a lot of zero is still zero. We are all hoping the money across all these companies will have gains and losses so in the end the portfolio comes out ahead or at least recover the money but we all know the government has never been able to do things like this.

There you have it. I expect to see more headlines around the assets we now own as shareholders. I know you and I would never make investment like this unless you were a venture capitalist like me. The whole program is hugely risky and I hope the managers of the portfolio are really great. In my opinion I would have or would incentivize large buyout companies, turn around executives and other best of breed people to manage these portfolios for optimum return. The fear I have is that politicians and career academics are managing these things. If money was to be made by making these portfolios really produce returns I suspect the best and brightest people in the world would sign up to help. I certainly would for certain.