Obamalympics

Obamalypics
The 100 Day Dash

Obama will wind up doing what Jimmy Carter did the country – mark my worlds. Obama sprinted out of the gate in his first 100 days having inherited some of the nation’s worst possible problems. Although seemly measured actions and surface politics have kept him in the lime light the back office administration is all over the map. Let’s face it – Obama is a great politician, one of the best. But surrounding him are career politicians, academics and a lawmaking body made up of career politicians and lawyers. Lets score some policies.

Auto Industry Score - 0

An industry bankrupt now and Democratic Union pandering the driver for action not clear economic policy. Ok here is some sense from a business futurist. Why haven’t the auto makers considered consolidating all the US manufacturing weighing down the companies into a new company – call it American Automotive Manufacturing, Inc. or something. Unload these burdensome assets and the union contracts into a business that can be run way more efficiently as a separate company. Re tool of shut down lines and cause all auto making to be done within this company for everyone’s cars. Sounds like a plan that would yield huge dollars for the automakers and efficiencies they could never achieve themselves. The automakers should be research and development, marketing and financial services businesses – now that would stave off bankruptcy and implosion but I don’t see any ideas like this bubbling up.

Budget – 0

We are already bankrupt – it is not Obama’s fault yet. But $3 trillion on top of $11 Trillion – is a recipe for absolute disaster. Who out there in your audience sees any end in sight for politicians spending and borrowing money? Right, absolutely none. Then when do we declare bankruptcy because that is exactly what happens when you accumulate so much debt and cant repay it.

Political Showmanship – 10

As I said Obama is one of the best politicians ever to ascend to office. The approval rating of his job has been supported by a great marketing and public relations engine. Since the American voter and those polled are under educated and ignorant of major issues and what they really mean – using TV and radio to give them their opinion has worked flawlessly.

International – 5

He has done a good job starting to rebuild the friendly olive branch bearing US. We need some good PR there. But on the other hand he is bowing down to rogue nations and governments around the world that need to be wrangled to the ground and punched in the face. At least Hillary is a bulldog out there but he wants the whole world to hold hands and just get along and that has never happened over the history of the human race.

Liberalism -10

If you wanted liberal ideals and legislation well you got it in spades. This will be the most liberal administration in US history for 100% certain. The conservatives out there just didn’t muster themselves to elect one of their own and by not banding together we got exactly what the country asked for.

Economy – 3

Yes he inherited a mess. Yes he is trying to navigate out of it with his academics and political friends (largely Clinton era). Even with any glimmer of success here – its only one touchdown pass with political brownie points. Long term the ideals and policies will sink this nation. Effectively our economy won’t recover for many years and consumers are so withdrawn from the market and our debt skyrocketing so much we are in the perfect storm and he is wearing a raincoat and umbrella when we all need to be in cellars to be safe from the hurricane. A short term win here with these policies means a long term disaster.

Homeland Defense – 0

Swine Flu – dealing with terrorism – slashing military budgets are all just opening the doors for disaster here. If we all think that Obama will keep us safe – think again. I guarantee Iran will be nuclear, that North Korea will continue to develop its program and that terrorist are going to have an opportunity to strike or stage people within our borders. I just don’t feel like we are going to be safe under a benevolent, peace loving administration when many in the world wants our demise.

Obama is doing great politically as the numbers show. I simply don’t believe the policies will get us out of all the messes we are in. It would appear he is on target but I would disagree with much of it – as I am sure you will too. The card are dealt and we just do not have a winning hand or strategy to play.

When Pigs Flu Flies

Every year over 35,000 people in the US alone die of Influenza. SARS and Bird Flu both with origins traced back to China recently set off alarms worldwide. Why is our world so reactionary to new viruses? Why listen to me, a business futurist, about this – well as a key supporter of the Royal Institution’s World Science Assembly – focused on weaponization of science and pandemics I bet I have some unique insights.

First of all be aware that it is imminent, most likely in our life time, that our species will experience a man made or natural pandemic. The population growth and concentration of people when compare to 1918 when influenza affected one quarter of the US population and one 5th of the world is such that if an outbreak were to occur the death toll would likely reach in the billion+. In fact in 1918-1919 more people died by far than the Bubonic Plague.

Fast forward to today. SARS was the first example of worldwide response system stress testing. Led by the US the genome of the virus was nailed down in a few days, municipalities were sealed off and notifications rang out throughout the world. This was not as serious as we all thought and frankly was more a test of our reaction to a potential virus spreading among world population.

Now Swine Flu. This will kill people – I think we all know that and heard it on the news. But be aware that the core issue here lies in the animal kingdom incubating viruses and not just influenza. As new strains hit our streets they become more and more virulent. This means that occurrences of these diseases will be more frequent and more powerful over time. Also, take into account of man’s destruction of the Rain Forest in South America alone. What major diseases exist there that the human race has not become immune to. I am certain there is something lurking around as mankind continues to enter uncharted territory.

What about scientific weapons. Yes mankind’s version of viruses through molecular weaponry. This too is potentially catastrophic as we are now toying with the Hand of God itself and if we wield it or a terrorist nation wields it what will happen to the human race. Not doomsday but I sure we have all seen Outbreak the movie and even more intense 12 monkeys.

Remember this above all – this will happen to our species no matter how disciplined and reactionary we are or have become. I applaud every effort and massive response but I think we can all conclude that we will do it to ourselves eventually, a terrorist will cause it or we are up the river because something we are not immune to or can treat will get out of Pandora’s Box.

GM Another American Icon to Fall

You are Making it happen, Watching it Happen; or It is Happening to You!

Americans are definitely watching it happen and it is happening to us. GM is the latest headline as it is certain to declare bankruptcy or do a pre packaged out of court deal. Either way if you watch the happenings bond holders and unions are inflexible waiting for a “better deal” and betting on the government bailout. I believe hope is not a strategy.

One after another American icon companies are falling. There will be more. Our consumption economy has stalled and is failing to support businesses across every industry. GM is a high profile case as was Merrill Lynch, AIG, and Lehman Brothers etc.. In this case and as I said Unions are a big part of the problem. Instead of everyone pooling interests and rapidly executing a plan the opposite is happening. The groups with a strangle hold on the business are just dug in and hoping that government will throw money down a black hole so they can continue to reap the rewards of a failed business and industry.

This company and the industry is hamstrung and on a global basis a dinosaur. Even if all works out for GM no one is buying cars so the whole pipeline, from manufacturing down to the auto dealers, is filled to capacity. The government is trying new tricks to incentivize consumers to purchase cars but people don’t have a clue what all that means. People out there only know that they are hoarding money and making do with what they have. How then can GM or Ford survive when the outlook for product sales is so grim?

I have said for a year that debundling the brands that have been acquired over time is necessary. In GM’s case someone is finally listening to reason. Spinning off brands is one of the major keys in saving our industry. Some brands need to be retired. So this is a good sign. Unions are a thing of the past for certain and part of the cancer that is wrought throughout many industries. Can you imagine unions, knowing the industry and companies are in constant states of failure, continue to strike and fight for more and more money when they are the highest paid worker in the world by far. Labor in the industries like auto, airline, transportation etc.. cripple businesses’ ability to compete.

I think everyone understands the impact of our failing auto industry and the government isn’t looking into the future at the Super Bowl. Instead they are just looking for the next touchdown to win a short term game that makes everyone look like winners. This is not a winning strategy at all and without significant and radical overhaul of our economic way of like I assure you our country is in sever trouble not just our companies and industries.

I know I have bad news after bad news but that is the way it is. The sugar coating we get is to boost confidence in our economy that is necessary to make sure buy stuff. Auto or any other industry selling stuff isn’t going to make it in its current form. Toss in the government and our cancerous National Debt too. I am just waking up everyday sick to my stomach that I want to make it happen, but 99%+ of us are resigned to watching it happen and it is most definitely happening to us.

G Force
G 20 Leaders More Conservative than US

G20 leaders were clear that their countries would not spend trillions in their own economies stating clearly it is fiscally irresponsible. Even liberal nations like France oppose huge stimulus packages – who would of thought the US would have a more liberal position than France? The US plans to borrow and mint an unprecedented amount. They hope to spend their way out of the economic disaster but it’s not spending when most of the money is new borrowing and printing new currency is it?

I don’t know what economists and mathematicians are out there these days. $3 trillion to start with is so fiscally irresponsible that the G 20 nations are looking at us in disbelief. And disbelief is what is happening to the US. Rudy Giuliani on Fox News last week made a convincing argument. If we were a company (sound familiar) the US would be a bad investment. Its true! Who is running these numbers?

If private investors dissected our budget, balance sheet, tax revenue and most importantly contingent liabilities (like to e$5 trillion commitment to Freddie and Fannie) they would command junk bond status interest rates on debt and most but the most aggressive would ever take that kind of risk. Add to that a package that wreaks of special interest spending and at the worst time in history focused on programs that have been broken for decades and can’t be fixed by massive government programs like Nation Health Care. This is not the time to be revamping things even though much of this is greatly desired. A simple example is that my child sees all the toys in the store but IF we buy one we get only one. Otherwise he would want us to buy the whole store full.

The Democratic Congress and White House are asking the world, like Hillary Clinton pandering to the Chinese, to buy more of our debt. If your child had gone crazy and had an unlimited spending amount on a credit card and spent more money than you could repay over decades and asked to spend even more than the splurge what would you do? This example is what America has become, a child in a toy store with a credit card from China, Russia and the rest of the world. Our parents are not happy and I am certain will take away our credit card soon. All the toys in the budget – much of which is not to fix the economy as it is touted – is reckless, irresponsible and policy that you would find in the Land of Misfit Toys. It is clear G 20 nations agree.

America's Economic Fall from Garce

The Bigger You are The Harder you Fall

I was watching Fox News last night and was astounded to hear the talking points d’jour as if they came right off the pages I have been writing for a year. Even the Boston Tea Party. I guess it’s a good thing for my perspective to be validated and catching on but a sure signal of bad to worse things coming down the pipe. We always hear that we are turning over this broken economy to our children someday and it is more like BROKE. Even as we attend the G20 it is apparent all signals point to bludgeoning behind the scenes and a world where America has reached the peak and is going down the other side of the hill. And with that we are piling up Trillions of dollars of new debt and minting currency like there is no tomorrow – and frankly there is no tomorrow for us.

Our leaders appear to believe that spending our way out of the crisis is the way we will recover. Actually we are borrowing our way out of the crisis and printing what will be funny money to the world. As I have said and even now the President agrees the world has lost – is losing and will lose faith in our economy and that is certain death for America. America’s economic dominance around the world is over. Barack Obama let this message fly from his lips in London and it is spot on that America will be moving aside in the 21st century and will be one of several economic powers on earth.

The death blow is coming and the day of reckoning around the corner. I will say this clearly again - when the world stops buying our treasuries and dollars and/or sells off some of either not only will inflation sky rocket but our way of life will come under so much pressure we most likely will collapse. Sounds bad but it’s the truth. Just like the banks rolled over debt our government does the same. Borrowing to pay for government and huge spending proposals has put America in so much debt unless massive and radical steps are taken right now our partner nations will see us as a bad investment.

If we were a company and our balance sheet and spending was as it is this business would be bankrupt at best. You or I would be crazy to invest. I am sure if you crunched the numbers you would agree with me. Now given the state of affairs the company decides to borrow even more to spend. I can’t stomach the way our country has been run into the ground – and like most of us we have little hope of changing anything.