When Pigs Flu Flies

Every year over 35,000 people in the US alone die of Influenza. SARS and Bird Flu both with origins traced back to China recently set off alarms worldwide. Why is our world so reactionary to new viruses? Why listen to me, a business futurist, about this – well as a key supporter of the Royal Institution’s World Science Assembly – focused on weaponization of science and pandemics I bet I have some unique insights.

First of all be aware that it is imminent, most likely in our life time, that our species will experience a man made or natural pandemic. The population growth and concentration of people when compare to 1918 when influenza affected one quarter of the US population and one 5th of the world is such that if an outbreak were to occur the death toll would likely reach in the billion+. In fact in 1918-1919 more people died by far than the Bubonic Plague.

Fast forward to today. SARS was the first example of worldwide response system stress testing. Led by the US the genome of the virus was nailed down in a few days, municipalities were sealed off and notifications rang out throughout the world. This was not as serious as we all thought and frankly was more a test of our reaction to a potential virus spreading among world population.

Now Swine Flu. This will kill people – I think we all know that and heard it on the news. But be aware that the core issue here lies in the animal kingdom incubating viruses and not just influenza. As new strains hit our streets they become more and more virulent. This means that occurrences of these diseases will be more frequent and more powerful over time. Also, take into account of man’s destruction of the Rain Forest in South America alone. What major diseases exist there that the human race has not become immune to. I am certain there is something lurking around as mankind continues to enter uncharted territory.

What about scientific weapons. Yes mankind’s version of viruses through molecular weaponry. This too is potentially catastrophic as we are now toying with the Hand of God itself and if we wield it or a terrorist nation wields it what will happen to the human race. Not doomsday but I sure we have all seen Outbreak the movie and even more intense 12 monkeys.

Remember this above all – this will happen to our species no matter how disciplined and reactionary we are or have become. I applaud every effort and massive response but I think we can all conclude that we will do it to ourselves eventually, a terrorist will cause it or we are up the river because something we are not immune to or can treat will get out of Pandora’s Box.