Friday, January 23, 2009

Why IS WALL STREET SO NERVOUS

Has Obama inherited a lose-lose situation

Wall Street is up and down like a Yo Yo. Obama faces one of the most challenging financial crises since the Great Depression. And main street is hobbled. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel? The US is bailing water out of the boat but putting debt and newly minted money back into it. I think we all can add that up and come to the conclusion that the boat will still sink anyway regardless of the captain of the ship.

Although big government must bail out big business in order to stabilize the markets and failing banks what will be done for the “Little Guy”. Sending out a stimulus check (Economic Viagra I call it) and slashing taxes for the middle class is not going to buy us out of trouble. Bankruptcy and bad credit assures that many credit addicts that propped up our Consumption Economy from the 1980’s on up to today won't or can't do it anymore. Even those trying to pay bills and are 30,60,90,120 days late assures tens of millions won’t be able to buy stuff the traditional way. Add unemployment, under employment, deficit spending, foreclosures and minting money to the equation and there it is – A more than Perfect Storm.

Some blame the Bush Administration and lack oversight on Wall Street but frankly this issue dates further back than the last 8 years and will project forward for some time. The government couldn’t have possibly projected the blow up of the banking industry acutely caused by the lack of confidence in mortgage products, securitizations and the home market bubble bursting. No matter how much is spent bailing out the financial sector without consumers every industry will be affected; some worse than others. The earth quake deep within the financial sector happened the resulting Tsunami then came roaring ashore and now the water is rushing in and drowning our main economic engine – Consumption.

What can we do? What can Obama and his team pull out of their sleeve? More money? We don’t have it! It’s all borrowed and minted. More diplomacy? Well that won’t solve the waning confidence the world has in America’s economy. Another Great Works program? Under employment is sure to be rampant although the employment numbers will look good. Blame China for currency manipulation? Very dangerous given we need them to buy our debt and they own hundreds of billions already.

I can’t say ouch anymore. The trauma has left all of us powerless and without a voice. Even the economic proposal I have put forth to eradicate the deficit, sell economy bonds (like War Bonds) to Americans, expunging bad credit over the last 18 months and next 12 and a onetime refinancing of debt. All reasonable – and oh did I say it will cost the government on dollar! But like many of us we don’t have the means to change anything. We don’t have a voice that is being heard. Worse even if we did no one is listening to great ideas from the bleachers.

Obama has a full plate for sure. He has a challenge never before seen on our short history globally and economically. I wish us all luck and the President too because one misstep and putting all that debt and currency in our boat is no way to plug up the holes.



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