Monday, December 1, 2008

THE TITANIC

Is the US Economy and Big Business too big to sink?

Too big to fail! We have heard this time and time again. Through the history books we heard the same label about the Titanic. Industry after industry keeps running aground as the government continues to bail water out of the sinking ships. How do we save the ship as the life rafts have already been used. What’s next? Pensions, hedge funds, retailers, airlines! How can the US keep printing and borrowing money to plug the leaks stay afloat? IT CAN’T.

The collapse of the US economy is upon us, the ship hit a mortgage iceberg first, then insurance, and keeps ripping the hull at every turn. Bush was right to call Wall Street drunk and I throw in politicians also, Remember Exxon Valdese. The people steering our economic ship were drunk and now even hung over their heads are not screwed on right. while government believes bailing out companies that are too big to fail –like AIG – we all sit in the second and third decks locked in like rats powerless to do anything but drown. The Bread lines we are so familiar with that represented people during the Great Depression have been replaced by companies and entire industries. Everyone is looking to get a hand out, bailout and some way out. But government is not the answer.

During the 80s, 90s and early 2000 the companies we see trying to get a seat at the table have aggregated so many businesses that they are way “too big” now and many can’t fail. So the government has to bail them out? YES. But why hasn’t someone thought of a plan to break up these businesses if government has to step in. GM finance would be a huge IPO and reap billions for GM. GE finance the same and banks and insurance companies can do the same. I know the Leveraged Buyout funds are just licking their lips ready to begin buying assets from failed business. Why isn’t the government forcing the issue that if you take our money we will force a debundling of car brands, insurance lines of business, bank brokerages and lines of business. If we lend the money we can recover the capital quickly through sale of assets and IPOs and really regenerate the markets and streamline big business. Now doesn’t that sound more plausible?

What about the 10% solution for retiring the deficit I suggested. Want a pension and hedge fund bailout then make the markets soar by mandating 10% of their portfolios go toward retiring the US debt. Heck they own some already buying more would cause the stock market to soar. What about Economy Bonds. What about a forced refinancing and consolidation of every household’s debt. 30,60, 90 day lates expunged. If we do nothing but bailout companies then our economy – a consumption economy – will fail worse because millions are out of work and can’t pay their bills. Even if you can pay your bills millions are so hobbled they won’t be buying a car, products, goods and services as they were over the last 30 years. Worse even more millions can’t participate in the future economy because their credit is ruined. How can the US economy be sustained this way. IT CAN’T.

But the government choice is to print money 24-7. Isn’t it clear that this strategy will for certain devalue the dollar and risk our currency as the underpinning of trade. The US is also borrowing money from around the world that it can’t pay back. We see the headlines of trillions of dollars necessary to save the US economy but how does this help when our consumption economy is getting wiped out?

I believe the plan is flawed, even if we take large ownership stakes in businesses to help assure shareholders, you and me, that the money being invested actually is repaid. But if we bail out airlines or auto then what happens when people can’t buy a car? Right it fails later anyway. So the government is trying to play smart and casting off life boats like crazy. But the government is also at the helm and I am certain the policies being implemented will take it down with the ship. Ans remember you and I are trapped on the ship and the life boat, probably in the form of a silly, useless check to stimulate the economy, is what we are being offered. Well grab a life jacket and jump into freezing water – you are sure to economically die either way.

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